Category Business Continuity Management Briefing BCM - BCM & Risk Management

Spring Briefing 2006

Pandemic Influenza, Avian Influenza and Business Continuity Planning
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Dr Bharat Pankhania, Consultant in Communicable Disease Control - Health Protection Agency

Pandemics of influenza have swept the world from time to time causing widespread illness, large numbers of deaths, and huge societal disruption, and all this concentrated in just a few weeks. There is currently rising concern that a new influenza virus with pandemic potential will emerge in the near future.

When that will be is not known, but the consequences, when it does, will be serious. Around a quarter of the population could be affected, with over 50,000 deaths in the UK alone. This could be over one or more waves, each lasting around 3 months.

Advance planning is essential to establish and rehearse contingency arrangements and identify and address gaps in our preparedness. Disruption is likely to be less if people know what to expect and what to do and have had time to think through the consequences for themselves, their families, communities and organisations.

An influenza pandemic could start anywhere in the world. Once established, a pandemic is likely to reach the UK in less than a month. In a further 2-3 weeks it could have spread across the UK. Thereafter, activity could last 3-5 months, with a peak of cases at about week 6. Subsequent waves are likely, weeks to months later.

Excess mortality due to influenza is expected to be higher than in inter-pandemic years (when 12,000 excess deaths are estimated to occur). The impact of overall case fatality rates between 0.37% (based on inter-pandemic and 1957 experience) and 2.5% are considered in table 1.

Table 1: Range of possible excess deaths based on various permutations of case-fatality and clinical attack rates, England and Wales

Absence from work

Absence from work will depend on the age-specific attack rate, although even if working age people are relatively spared, additional absenteeism may result from staff needing to take time off to care for family members or other difficulties.

Accelerated transmission may occur in the workplace, resulting in staff being ill during a narrower time frame than in the general population.

It is suggested that business continuity plans are based on a cumulative total of 25% of workers taking some time off – possibly 5-8 working days – over a period of 3 to 4 months. Modelling suggests absenteeism due to the pandemic will rise to a peak of 5-7%, the higher number including those who would need to look after those who are ill.

This equates to about three times the normal average absenteeism in a private sector company and double that in the public sector. Even in the reasonable worst case of a 50% attack rate these figures only rise to 10-15%. However the absenteeism rate would not be uniform and some employers may be particularly badly affected.

The Influenza Virus

Figure 1 below is an image of the Influenza A virus. The virus is roughly spherical and about 200nm in diameter. The outer envelope contains protein "spikes" of haemagglutinin(H) and neuraminidase(N). There are principally nine different types of neuraminidase protein and thirteen different types of haemagglutinin protein. It is the presence of the different group types of H and N which confers a virus, with potential to cause severe disease. Thus the group combination currently circulating and causing much concern is the H5N1 combination.

Figure 1: Diagram of an Influenza virus

What is a pandemic?

A pandemic occurs when a disease spreads easily and rapidly throughout the world. The word “pan” refers to all and “demos” to all people. Thus a Pandemic in our case is an infection that affects all people.

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The Continuity Forum will be hosting more of our special events and workshops focusing on the issues surrounding Avian Flu and the risks around a Pandemic to help organisations develop a sensible and appropriate response.

For more details on these activities and the general activities of the Continuity Forum please contact us directly on +44 208 993 1599 or visit or website at www.continuityforum.org.

Please do contact Sara Mckenna or Russell Price .

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For more details on our events, workshops and industry development work, as well as the general activities of the Continuity Forum please contact us directly on +44 208 993 1599 or mail us HERE!

Please do contact Sara Mckenna or Russell Price .

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